Ma Iune 11 o kēia makahiki, ua hoʻopuka kūhelu ke Kikowaena Wānana o ke Aniau o ka National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i kahi ʻōlelo aʻo no El Niño - ʻo ka ʻōlelo kūhelu "Ua hōʻea ʻo El Niño". ʻAʻole kēia he hōʻike aniau makahiki maʻamau. Ua hōʻike ka loiloi likelika i hoʻokuʻu ʻia i ka manawa like ʻo ka likelika o ka ulu ʻana o kēia hanana i ka pae "ikaika loa" ma waena o Nowemapa 2026 a me Ianuali 2027 he kiʻekiʻe e like me 63%, a ʻo kona ikaika e "kūlana ma waena o nā mea kiʻekiʻe loa ma ka mōʻaukala me nā moʻolelo mea kani mai ka makahiki 1950". ʻOi aku ka ikaika o ka awelika o ka wānana hui o ke Kikowaena ʻEulopa no nā Wānana Weather Medium-Range (ECMWF): manaʻo ʻia e hiki aku ka anomaly o ka mahana o ka ʻilikai ma ka ʻāina ʻo Niño 3.4 i +3℃ i Dekemaba o kēia makahiki, a ʻoi aku kekahi mau hiʻohiʻona ma mua o +4℃.
I mea e hoʻomaopopo ai i ke koʻikoʻi o kēia helu: ʻO ka hanana El Niño ikaika loa mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā moʻolelo meteorological hou i hana ʻia ma 2015-16, me kahi anomaly kiʻekiʻe o +2.6 ℃.Inā e kū maoli ka wānana i luna, e ʻoi aku ka hanana ma 2026-27 ma ka liʻiliʻi he 15%, e komo ana i kahi pae i ʻike ʻole ʻia.
He aha ka mea a nā waihona mōʻaukala e haʻi mai nei iā kākou?
ʻAʻole he hanana hou ʻo El Niño, akā i kēlā me kēia manawa e kū mai ai kahi hanana "ikaika loa", waiho ia i nā ʻeha ma ka mōʻaukala o ka mahiʻai.
1997-98: ʻO ka helu kuhi kiʻekiʻe o Niño 3.4 no kēia hanana ma kahi o +2.3 ℃, e lilo ia i hoʻokahi o nā mea ikaika loa i ke kenekulia 20. Ua ʻeha ʻo Indonesia, ʻo Philippines, a me Thailand i nā maloʻo nui. Ua hōʻike ka Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) ua emi ka hua o nā mea kanu ma ʻAmelika Waena a me ka ʻāina Caribbean ma kahi o 15% a 20% i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka makahiki i hala. Ua ʻeha kekahi mau ʻāina i nā pohō nui. Ua emi nui nā wahi kanu palaoa ma Brazil a me Argentina ma muli o ka ua maʻamau ʻole. Ma Asia Hikina Hema, ua alakaʻi pololei kēia hanana i ka nalowale ʻana o kahi o 15 miliona tone o ka laiki.
2015-16: Ua hōʻea nā mea ʻelua i ka piko o +2.6 ℃, ʻo ia ka mea kiʻekiʻe loa ma nā moʻolelo o kēia au. Ua emi ka hana ʻana o ka kulina ma India ma kahi o 4%, a ua emi ka hana ʻana o ka laiki ma kahi o 1%. Ua hoʻopilikia ʻia ka mākeke Hikina Hema o ʻAsia, a ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai o ka laiki e like me ia, e koi ana iā India e hoʻopaʻa pinepine i nā kapu hoʻokuʻu aku. Ua ʻeha ʻo ʻApelika Hema i kahi maloʻo nui, a ua hāʻule nui ka hana hydropower o ka Kariba Dam ma Zambia a me Zimbabwe, e alakaʻi ana i kahi pilikia ikehu lua e pālahalaha ana ma nā ʻāina he nui.
I ka makahiki 2023-24: Ua helu ka World Meteorological Organization (WMO) i kēia hanana ma ke ʻano he hoʻokahi o nā hanana ʻelima ikaika loa i hoʻopaʻa ʻia. ʻO kēia hanana, me ka hoʻomehana honua e hoʻomau nei, ua hoʻoikaika i ka makahiki 2024 e lilo i makahiki wela loa i hoʻopaʻa ʻia a ua hoʻonui pololei i nā maloʻo mahiʻai ma nā ʻāpana o ʻApelika Hikina a me ʻAsia Hema.
Ua hōʻike ʻia kahi noiʻi loiloi nui i paʻi ʻia ma Nature Communications i ka makahiki 2014 ʻo nā hanana El Niño ke kumu maʻamau o ka hana hui pū ʻana o ka palaoa, ka laiki, a me ka palaoa honua e haʻalele i ka pae maʻamau ma -4.3% a i +0.8%, ʻoiai ua pōmaikaʻi nā soybeans ma kahi o 2.1% a i 5.4% ma muli o ka ua maikaʻi ma kekahi mau ʻāpana o ʻAmelika. Ma hope o kēia ʻikepili aia kahi ʻokoʻa koʻikoʻi o ka ʻāpana - ʻaʻole hilinaʻi ka hopena i ka ikaika o ka hanana, akā ma kahi a me nā mea āu e ulu ai.
Ka wānana ʻana o ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻāpana ma 2026
Ua hāʻawi mai nā kānāwai o ka mōʻaukala iā mākou i kahi palapala ʻāina kūpono ʻole akā pono o nā pilikia.
ʻĪnia a me ʻĀsia Hema: ʻO India ka mea nona ma kahi o 24% o ka hana laiki o ka honua. Loaʻa i ka monsoon India kahi pilina maikaʻi ʻole e like me ka puke aʻo me ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) - i nā makahiki El Niño, ʻoi aku ka nāwaliwali o ka monsoon kauwela. ʻO nā hanana ikaika nui ʻekolu i ka makahiki 1997-98, 2015-16, a me 2023-24 i hoʻoulu i nā kapu hoʻokuʻu aku ma New Delhi, e hoʻouna ana i ke kaomi i nā ʻāina lawe mai laiki honua. Ua ʻōlelo maopopo ka hōʻike aʻo a ka FAO i kēia manawa ʻo ka pilikia o ka maloʻo mahiʻai ma ʻĀsia Hema a me ʻĀsia Hikina Hema ʻo ia ka "ʻoi loa", me ka hiki ke ʻoi aku ma mua o 50% ma kekahi mau wahi e kū nei i ka maloʻo.
ʻĀkia Hikina Hema: Aia ʻo Indonesia, Pilipino, Thailand, Vietnam, a me Cambodia i loko o ka ʻāpana pilikia kiʻekiʻe o ka mōʻaukala. He mea koʻikoʻi loa ka ʻaila pama - ʻo Malekia a me Indonesia nā mea hana nui o ka ʻaila pama ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, a ʻaʻole i pakele nā ʻāina ʻelua i kekahi o nā hanana El Niño koʻikoʻi i ka wā ma mua. Aia pū ka pulupulu a me ke kō i loko o ka māhele pilikia kiʻekiʻe.
ʻAukekulelia: Ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo ʻAukekulelia ka ʻāina hana palaoa i ʻike nui ʻia i nā hōʻailona ENSO ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa. I nā makahiki El Niño, hōʻike pinepine ka ua ma Queensland a me New South Wales i nā ʻokoʻa koʻikoʻi mai nā pae maʻamau, e hoʻoweliweli pololei ana i ka palaoa a me ka bale puna.
Palakila: ʻO ke kūlana ka mea paʻakikī loa. ʻO ka maʻamau, lawe mai ʻo El Niño i ka ua nui aʻe i ka ʻaoʻao hema o Palakila, he mea maikaʻi ia no ka ulu ʻana o ka soybean. Eia nō naʻe, hiki i ka ua nui ke alakaʻi i ka emi ʻana o ka maikaʻi o ke kofe a me ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o nā maʻi o kekahi mau mea kanu leguminous. Hōʻike ka hōʻike JRC o ka European Union e manaʻo ʻia e piʻi nui ke kumukūʻai honua o ka palaoa paʻakikī i ke kūlana o ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka ikaika o El Niño, ʻoiai e hāʻule paha nā kumukūʻai honua o ka soybeans a me ka palaoa hoʻoilo ʻulaʻula paʻakikī ma muli o nā pono mai nā wahi hana ʻAmelika.
ʻApelika Hikina a me ka Sahel: Ke hahai nei kēia ʻāina i kahi manaʻo kūʻē i ko ʻAsia Hikina Hema - i ka wā o nā makahiki El Niño, piʻi ka ua, akā i loko o ke ʻano o ka hōʻino ʻana o ka lepo a me nā ʻōnaehana nāwaliwali, ʻaʻole paha e alakaʻi ka ua nui i ka ʻohi ʻana akā e lawe mai i nā waikahe a me ka ʻino ʻana o ka lepo. Ua hoʻopuka ka FAO i kahi ʻōlelo aʻo no Somalia, a ua hoʻokaʻawale ka mea hana INFORM Warning a ka JRC i kekahi mau ʻāina ʻApelika Waena ma kahi pae "kiʻekiʻe o ka pilikia kanaka".
Kina: I ka mōʻaukala, ʻokoʻa ka hopena o El Niño ma Kina ma muli o ka ʻāina. Ua nui ka ua ma ka hema o Kina, ʻoiai ua piʻi aʻe ka pilikia o ka maloʻo ma ka ʻākau a me ka hikina ʻākau. I ka wā o 1997-98, ua nui ke kahe ʻana o ke kai ma ka hema o Kina a me ka maloʻo nui ma ka ʻākau ʻākau, ka mea i hoʻopilikia i ka ʻohi ʻai i kēlā makahiki.
ʻO ke kumu hoʻoili o ka mākeke kemika mahiʻai
ʻAʻole he pilina maikaʻi maʻalahi ka pilina ma waena o nā hanana aniau a me ka mākeke pesticide a pono e kūkākūkā pono ʻia.
ʻO ka pilikia o ka emi ʻana o ke koi: I nā makahiki maloʻo, ua emi ka makemake o nā mahiʻai e kanu a me ka ikaika o kā lākou hoʻopukapuka kālā, a ʻo ke kūʻai ʻana i nā pesticides kekahi o nā lilo i maʻalahi loa ke hōʻemi ʻia. I ka wā o ka hanana El Niño ma Asia Hikina Hema i ka makahiki 1997-98, ua emi nui ke koi no nā pesticides ma Indonesia a me Pilipine. ʻO kēia kekahi ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ka ʻāina mahiʻai a ma muli hoʻi o ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā o nā mahiʻai.
Nā loli kūkulu i nā mea ʻino a me nā maʻi: ʻO ka ua nui ma kekahi mau wahi e alakaʻi ai i ka nui o nā maʻi, ʻoiai ʻo ka maloʻo e lawe mai i ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana a i ʻole ka puka ʻana o nā mea ʻino kikoʻī. I ka wā ma mua, aia kahi pilina ma waena o nā makahiki El Niño a me nā hana a nā mea ʻino e hele mai ana e like me nā ʻūhini. I ka makahiki 2023-24, ʻo ka hui pū ʻana o nā mahana kiʻekiʻe a me El Niño i hoʻoulu ai i ka hana maʻamau ʻole o nā mea ʻino e like me nā lele keʻokeʻo a me nā mite ma nā mākeke wela he nui.
Ka waihona o ke kahawai a me ke kaomi kapikala: I nā makahiki me nā kūlana aniau mahiʻai koʻikoʻi, ʻo ka hoʻomaʻemaʻe ʻana o ka waihona ma nā kahawai hoʻolaha e lohi pinepine ana i hoʻokahi a ʻelua hapaha. Ma ka mākeke Palakila i ka wā hoʻemi waihona 2023-24, ʻo ka hopena hui pū ʻia o El Niño i lawe mai i ka ua nui kūloko, a ʻo nā maʻi soybean (e like me ka ʻōpala soybean ʻĀsia) ma kekahi mau wahi i ʻoi aku ka ʻino ma muli o ke kaiapuni haʻahaʻa kiʻekiʻe. ʻO kēia ʻokoʻa ʻāpana no nā mea hoʻokuʻu aku i nā agrochemical Kina ʻo ia hoʻi i loko o ka makahiki hoʻokahi, ʻo nā hōʻailona koi mai nā mākeke like ʻole e kūʻē loa paha.
ʻO ke kaomi i hui pū ʻia mai nā mea hoʻouluulu a me nā pesticides: He mea kūpono ke hoʻomaopopo ʻana ua kau mua ke kaomi ʻana o El Niño i ka makahiki 2026, me ka hoʻopaʻa ʻia ʻana o nā logistics ma ke Kai o Hormuz ma muli o ke kūlana ma ka Hikina Waena, i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana aku i nā mea hoʻouluulu urea a me phosphate. Ma kāna hōʻike i Malaki o kēia makahiki, ua ʻōlelo maopopo ʻo Paul Donovan, ke poʻo waiwai o UBS: "ʻO ka nele o nā mea hoʻouluulu nitrogen ʻaʻole paha ia ka hoʻoweliweli nui loa i nā kumukūʻai mahiʻai i kēia makahiki; ʻo ka super El Niño."
Ua emi ka hilinaʻi o nā kumu hoʻohālike aniau.
I nā kūlana koʻikoʻi loa, e emi ana ka hilinaʻi o nā hiʻohiʻona aniau. Ua ʻōlelo maopopo ka hōʻike a JRC inā hiki ka hanana i ka ikaika "ma mua ʻole", ua hala kāna kumu hoʻohālike ma mua o ka extrapolating mai nā mea i hala mua. He anomaly o +4°ʻAʻole i hana ʻia ʻo C ma Niño 3.4 i ka wā o nā moʻolelo mea kani. ʻO kahi hanana like i ka makahiki 1877-78 i hoʻoulu ai i ka wī honua, akā ʻaʻohe o mākou ʻikepili pololei hou e hana ai i kahi hoʻohālikelike paʻa.
No laila, ʻo ke kūlana o kēia ʻatikala: E hoʻolālā i nā pilikia e pili ana i nā hanana "ikaika a ikaika loa" i loko o ka pae hiki o 70% o kēia manawa ma ke ʻano he hiʻohiʻona kumu, ma mua o ka piliwaiwai ʻana ma ke hiʻohiʻona huelo o +4°C. Ua lawa ka paʻakikī o ka mea mua a he nui nā hiʻohiʻona mōʻaukala i hala e hilinaʻi ai.
ʻO kekahi kumu o ka kānalua e waiho ana i ka hiki ke pane aku i ka mahiʻai o Kina. I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua hoʻonui nui ʻo Kina i kāna hoʻopukapuka kālā i nā ʻōlelo aʻo meteorological mahiʻai a me nā ʻōnaehana hoʻoinu wai. ʻAʻole hiki ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia kona hiki ke kū i ka maloʻo me kēlā i ka makahiki 1997-98. Ua like ke kūlana ma India - ʻo ka ʻōnaehana hoʻoinu wai ma hope o ka Green Revolution e uhi ana i kahi hapa nui o nā wahi ulu laiki, e hoʻoikaika ana i kona kūpaʻa i nā kūlana monsoon maʻamau. Eia nō naʻe, hāʻawi ka ʻikepili mōʻaukala i kahi hōʻailona maopopo o ke kuhikuhi pilikia.
Ke hoʻomaka nei paha ka hanana El Niño 2026. ʻO ka nīnau maoli, ʻo ia kona piʻi ʻana o ka ikaika, a inā paha e hoʻoikaika ka hopena i hui pū ʻia o ka lewa a me ke kai iā ia e ʻoi aku ma mua o nā moʻolelo mōʻaukala.
No ka mahiʻai honua, ʻo ia hoʻi, e wehe mau ana kahi puka makani kānalua kūkulu mai ka hapa lua o kēia makahiki a hiki i ka pūnāwai o 2027. No ka ʻoihana agrochemical, he hōʻailona kēia o ka ʻokoʻa kūloko ma ke koi a he hoʻāʻo koʻikoʻi no ke kūpaʻa o ke kaulahao lako.
Ua haʻi mai ka mōʻaukala iā mākou ʻo ka hopena o ka mahiʻai o kahi hanana El Niño nui he manawa lohi ia o 6 a 12 mau mahina - ʻike pinepine ʻia ka pohō hua maoli ma hope o ka piko o ka hanana. ʻO ke ʻano kēia, ʻaʻole paha i hoʻohālikelike piha ʻia nā kumukūʻai i ʻike ʻia ma ka mākeke i kēia pilikia.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Iune-23-2026
